The 11 seats in Wales that could change hands in 2015

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Based on Ladbrokes general election constituency odds, (now available for every seat in Great Britain), we’ve identified the seats in Wales most at risk of changing hands in 2015.

Seat Win10  % Maj 2010 Chance of losing seat Prediction
Cardiff North Cons  0.4 79.74% LAB GAIN
Cardiff Central LD  12.7 69.05% LAB GAIN
Arfon PC  5.6 51.32% Too close to call
Carmarthen W & P’shire Cons  8.4 42.67% CON HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan Cons  8.8 40.82% CON HOLD
Aberconwy Cons  11.3 39.27% CON HOLD
Brecon & Radnorshire LD  9.7 36.07% LD HOLD
Ceredigion LD  21.8 36.07% LD HOLD
Montgomeryshire Cons  3.5 31.10% CON HOLD
Ynys Mon Lab  7.1 27.82% LAB HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire Cons 11.6 25.44% CON HOLD

So, of the 40 seats in Wales, only two in Cardiff are predicted as likely changes.

The betting suggests Arfon is on a knife edge, with Labour and PC as 5/6 joint favourites. Plaid’s other two seats look reasonably safe and there are two plausible targets for them in Ynys Mon and Ceredigion.

Montgomeryshire has the distinction of being the most likely Liberal Democrat gain in the entire country, according to our odds. Lembit Opik suffered a huge swing against him in 2010; perhaps a new candidate can make a difference.

New cabinet minister Stephen Crabb is by no means safe in Preseli Pembrokeshire, although if Labour win here they are likely headed for a comfortable Westminster majority.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.