Reshuffle: The betting markets’ reaction

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Esther McVey at No.10

Esther McVey at No.10

 

There have been a few market moves in response to Cameron’s surprisingly big reshuffle.

Phil Hammond’s profile rises a bit further and he’s now 12/1 to be next Tory leader. Mike Smithson makes the case here. Hague moves out of contention to 50/1, although I suppose if Cameron fell under a bus tomorrow he might still be a short term possibility. The new female ministers all saw their odds cut, although it’s worth noting that Esther McVey and Nicky Morgan are both in extremely marginal seats and are no certainties to still be MPs after the election.

Ladbrokes have drawn up a market on who will be the next female prime minister.

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Of course, there’s a very good chance it will be someone who we’ve not heard of yet.

Lord Hill’s nomination as next EU Commissioner was very welcome news for Ladbrokes. He was an un-backed 20/1 shot and the gamble on Andrew Lansley came unstuck.

None of this has resulted in any changes to our overall betting on the next general election, where Labour remain favourites to win most seats.

 

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.