There’s really very little point in trying to predict what’s next for Greece after a series of shocking events over the past 10 days, but as we indicated back in December, it will take even more madness on the Mediterranean coast to barge them out of the Eurozone.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras looked dead and buried a few days ago, after the 40-year-old and his entourage gave up on talks with Eurozone leaders and creditors regarding Greece’s latest bailout, before calling a snap referendum on whether terms that were, at that stage, off the table would be accepted.
Opinion polls suggested Tsipras’ gamble had backfired badly, leading to rumours that the vote would be called off if the Eurozone, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund agreed to relatively small concessions to the new deal.
Alas, pollsters across Europe, from London to Athens, aren’t having a great time of it just now, and despite a ‘No’ (‘Oxi’) vote attracting an odds-against price with Ladbrokes all last week, while ‘Yes’ (‘Nai’) garnered plenty of support, over 61 per cent of the Greek electorate thought otherwise.
Tsipras is now as safe as houses, which is more than can be said for Greece’s controversial former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who played his villainous role to perfection during negations leading up to the referendum, yet stood down following the result, seemingly to clear the air for fresh talks.
Where this goes from here is anyone’s guess, but as we indicated on these pages seven months ago, people have been backing Greece to leave the single currency for a number of years now, and that eventuality happening by next January is still odds-against with Ladbrokes at a top price 6/4.
As Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of saying, seemingly with regard to every European problem ranging from Prime Minister David Cameron’s prehistoric backbenchers to panic on the streets of Athens, where there’s a will, there’s a way.
It seems there’s still a will, although how many more ways Merkel and co will put up with is questionable.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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