Merkel odds-on to win German elections, but AFD could surprise

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Germany heads to the polls on Sunday and the odds suggest Angela Merkel will be untroubled in the Election.

The Chancellor’s CDU/CSU alliance are 1/100 to claim the most seats in this weekend’s vote.

The SPD are the union’s only realistic rivals, and even then they’re a lengthy 16/1 to pull off a surprise.

Indeed the SPD are on course to come second, and it’s odds-on at 4/5 that the trio combine to form a coalition in the Bundestag.

Although a coalition won’t be required if the CDU/CSU can win a majority. At 25/1 however, it looks unlikely.

But most of the attention will be on the fight for third.

In a trend seen across Europe in recent years, Germany’s right-wing party the AfD have seen a sizeable rise in popularity.

Recent polls suggest the party, formed in 2013, could gain as much as 12% of the vote in Sunday’s Election.

Four years ago they recorded 4.8% of the people’s vote, just missing out on the 5% threshold required for a seat.

They’re in a close fight with Die Linke, The FDP and The Greens, but our traders make AfD 4/5 to claim the most votes of that quartet.

That would effectively leave them in third and as the largest non-government outfit in German Parliament, with up to and around 50 seats.

The AfD are odds-on at 4/6 to claim over 10% of the vote. It’s 5/4 they win between 5-10%.

Meanwhile, Merkel is 7/1 to be replaced as Chancellor in 2017, with 1/16 suggesting she will remain in power through the remainder of the year.

Click here for all our German Election odds.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing

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