How many of the cabinet will lose their seats in 2015?

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Thanks to David Cameron’s reshuffle, there are now quite a few more cabinet ministers at risk of losing their seats at the general election. Remarkably, not a single member of Gordon Brown’s last cabinet was defeated in 2010. I think that’s unlikely to be repeated next year.

If you take Ladbrokes’ constituency odds, we can calculate the percentage chances of any MP being defeated. Based on that, here are the top ten most vulnerable members of the cabinet and their chances of being evicted from Westminster in May 2015:

Cabinet Member Party Constituency Chance of losing seat
Danny Alexander LD Inverness 56.9%
Esther McVey CON Wirral West 54.5%
Nicky Morgan CON Loughborough 52.2%
Ed Davey LD Kingston & Surbiton 36.6%
Nick Clegg LD Sheffield Hallam 27.1%
David Laws LD Yeovil 26.7%
Stephen Crabb CON Preseli Pembrokeshire 25.4%
Vince Cable LD Twickenham 17.7%
Alistair Carmichael LD Orkney & Shetland 6.4%
Justine Greening CON Putney 5.6%

There is some evidence that party leaders tend to get a vote share bonus in their seats. I’m not aware of any analysis of whether being in the cabinet helps an MP’s electoral performance. I expect it would have a small positive impact; Esther McVey and Nicky Morgan will be hoping so. However, I won’t be surprised if it has the opposite effect for the Liberal Democrats in this list..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.