How far will Carswell win by in Clacton?

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With UKIP now an almost unbackable 1/100 shot to win today’s by-election, the main betting interest is now concentrated on just how far Carswell will win by. It’s only 10/1 that he gets over 70% of the vote.

carswell

Carswell got 53% of the vote as the Tory candidate at the general election and the two polls conducted in the wake of his defection suggest he might do even better standing for UKIP:

clactonpolls

Having spent a day in the town on Tuesday, there was surprisingly little in the way of campaigning going on that I saw. Certainly nothing like the Newark by-election in June. Perhaps that’s just a reflection of how much of a foregone conclusion this has become; I’m expecting much more of a fight for the upcoming Rochester & Strood contest.

Here’s how the number of bets has broken down on the UKIP vote share market:

clactonpie

We’ve also got a market on the turnout, you can bet over or under 50% and most of the money has been for over, which is now 4/6 from 5/6. You can find all of our latest odds here.

oud.com/feed/odds-feed/getLadOdds.php?eventID=210933160&marketID=211645403&categoryID=5740&lang=en

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.