What is Labour’s electoral advantage now?

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Is that right? A few months ago, it would have seemed perfectly plausible, but the rise of the SNP must surely have dented Labour’s advantage somewhat. In 2010, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland, picking up 70% of the seats. If the current polls are correct, it looks like they might get around 30% of the vote but maybe only 25% of the seats (some forecasts make the situation much worse for them). So, that has to have eroded some of their vote efficiency.

Taking a look at the forecast model at May2015.com, and plugging in a 3% Tory vote share lead, we get the following projection:

may2015

So, Labour 38 seats adrift. It’s worth noting that their model is extremely bullish about the SNP’s chances, but even if you give Labour 15 more seats in Scotland, they are still not getting very close to the Tories in seat numbers.

The model at electionforecast.co.uk is currently projecting a 3.4% advantage for the Tories on national vote share, resulting in a 28 seat deficit for Labour.

elecfor

Still, for those who agree with Mike, you might be tempted by the 4/1 on offer at Ladbrokes that the Tories win most votes, but Labour end up as the biggest party. You can find all of our latest general election odds here.

voteseat
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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


3 Comments

INDY180914

Why have Ladbrokes withdrawn their GE 2015 Constituency bets online and their betting shops ? Just confirmed with Ladbrokes Live Chat

mshaddick

Yes, sorry about that. Our website team wanted to clear the site of a number of markets to ensure everything worked properly during the extra pressure of the Cheltenham Festival this week. The constituency markets were one of those. Should be back up again on Friday evening or Saturday morning.

John H

I thought Labour not only had structural advantage in Scotland and Wales, but in England too, as evidenced in 2005 when Labour won 90 more seats than the Tories while winning 0.2 percentage point less in votes. The seat count almost exactly reversed in 2010, but only on the Tories winning by 11 points. A crude estimate may suggest the Tories need at least a 5 point lead in England to break even. Have they achieved that in the polls? With the constituency boundaries not being significantly changed compared to 2005, what happened to Labour’s advantage in England?

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