East Dunbartonshire: SNP now favourites.

oud.com/feed/odds-feed/getLadOdds.php?eventID=210933160&marketID=211645403&categoryID=5740&lang=en
Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport.co.uk

Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport.co.uk

Pretty amazing. Having come fourth with 11% in 2010, the SNP are now favourites to win the East Dunbartonshire seat next May and unseat the Lib Dem incumbent, Jo Swinson.

eastd

This could be one of the most interesting three way marginals in the whole of the UK, and we’ve seen support for all three main contenders. The shrewdies who took 50/1 about the SNP in the days before the referendum can be quite pleased with their position now.

Perhaps the SNP should be even shorter. If you take a look at electionforecast.co.uk their probabilities would produce odds of:

  • 4/9 SNP
  • 4/1 Labour
  • 10/1 Lib Dems

I would advise anyone to have a good look at the FAQs on their site before committing too much money on the basis of their forecasts. Predicting Scottish seats is incredibly tricky at the moment. The basic problem is how much can you anchor forecasts to the 2010 results, or do we just accept that the world of Scottish politics has totally changed and start from scratch? We’ll have a better idea once we get some constituency level polling in the New Year.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


2 Comments

The Vole

Reblogged this on The Orkney Vole and commented:
Now we all know that its the bookies who really know what is happening – what is happening down in East Dunbartonshire could even happen here here. This Vole may invest a bit of barley in something exciting.

Pulpstar

I’ve backed both the SNP and Labour here, interesting to see that my £200 on Labour at 1-2 is now worth £55.34 at fair value but my £10 on the SNP is now sitting pretty at an effective worth of £333.33.

Just hope Jo doesn’t hold on 😉

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