Could we be heading for a YES landslide in the indyref?

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With the money continuing to favour a YES vote, the odds for independence are now 5/2, not far off an all time low at Ladbrokes.

One very active market has been the YES vote percentage betting:

indylatest

The striking thing is how keen punters have been to back a YES vote of over 55%. From the very start it has been the most popular option, originally available at 20/1 and now an amazingly short 11/2. Here’s how the money staked on this market has broken down:

yeschart

That’s correct; over half of the money we have taken has been for a YES victory of over 55%. Personally, I think it extremely unlikely that YES could win by that much; surely if they do win, it will be by a very narrow margin. 50-55% probably isn’t a bad bet at 10/3 if you wanted to get with YES.

Anyway, as a result, an easy win for independence is now Ladbrokes’ nightmare scenario. As things stand, it would comfortably be the worst ever result for the company on a non-sports market. I’m not updating my cv just yet, but this blog might be going a bit quiet for a few weeks after September 18th if it happens.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.