Could the SNP win 25 seats at Westminster?

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SNP now favourites to unseat Danny Alexander in Inverness

            Ladbrokes now makes SNP favourites to unseat Danny Alexander in Inverness.

…….

Despite a fairly comprehensive defeat for the nationalists in last week’s indyref, we now think the SNP might make some significant progress in next May’s general election.

Their seat line (which is our central forecast for the number of constituencies won) has moved up from 6.5 to 9.5; the SNP currently hold six of Scotland’s 59 seats.

In pretty much every seat in Scotland, their odds have been cut quite significantly, and below are their top 25 prospects along with our estimate of their chances of winning each seat, based on Ladbrokes current odds in each constituency.

Seat 2010 Winner 2010 Majoity % SNP Win Chance
Angus SNP 8.7 84.28%
Perth & Perthshire North SNP 9.1 82.73%
Banff & Buchan SNP 10.5 83.59%
Moray SNP 13.6 83.59%
Dundee East SNP 4.5 80.78%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP 12.8 75.44%
Gordon Lib-Dem 13.8 44.92%
Argyll & Bute Lib-Dem 7.6 42.56%
Inverness Lib-Dem 18.6 39.95%
Ochil & Perthshire South Labour 10.3 38.37%
Falkirk Labour 15.4 36.48%
Dundee West Labour 19.6 30.35%
Ayrshire North& Arran Labour 21.5 30.35%
Fife North East Lib-Dem 22.6 24.97%
Linlithgow & Falkirk East Labour 24.4 19.95%
Kilmarnock & Loudoun Labour 26.6 18.07%
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Lib-Dem 8.2 17.55%
Caithness, Sutherland & E-R Lib-Dem 16.8 17.60%
Dunfermline & Fife West Labour 11.2 14.84%
Glasgow North Labour 13.2 14.96%
Stirling Labour 17.9 14.70%
Edinburgh East Labour 23.0 15.08%
Glasgow East Labour 36.8 15.08%
Inverclyde Labour 38.5 15.08%
Dunbartonshire West Labour 41.2 15.08%

The SNP are now favourites to win Argyll & Bute, a seat in which they actually came fourth last time. We also now make them favourites to turn over Danny Alexander’s sizeable majority in Inverness. He could be the highest profile cabinet casualty in 2015.

Their hopes rest on being able to appeal to a sizeable chunk of the 45% who voted YES last week. I expect a large number of those will revert to type and not bother voting at the general election. However, if the SNPs dramatic increase in membership since last Thursday is anything to go by, they must stand a good chance of causing Labour and the Liberal Democrats some big problems across the country.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


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