Clacton by-election finished as a betting contest?

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The Mail on Sunday/Survation poll appears to have killed any hopes of the Clacton by-election being an interesting betting heat. We were 2/7 about a UKIP victory beforehand and 1/10 after the poll came out.

Yes, it was taken in the immediate aftermath of Carswell’s shock decision, and the chances of UKIP actually getting 64% are probably quite low, but it immediately stopped anyone betting on what had looked like an intriguing contest. Here’s the breakdown of the money we’ve taken on the by-election, almost all of it before the poll:

clactonpie

Once we have a confirmed date for the by-election, I expect we’ll release some more prices on turnout, vote shares and margin of victory.

We took a bit of money on Boris Johnson being the Tory candidate, originally a 33/1 shot. The chances of him wanting to go anywhere near Clacton after this poll seem fairly remote.

clactonodds
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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.