Seat-by-seat results in my latest poll – swings range from 2% (Pudsey, Gloucester) to 8% (Brentford & Isleworth): pic.twitter.com/xEJCDlZdKj
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014
Lord Ashcroft’s latest marginals polling seemed to mostly confirm what we already knew; that Labour are far enough ahead to form a majority government, if there were an election right now. Although, interestingly, the main changes in our constituency odds saw the Tories shorten up in three key seats.
In Gloucester, they are now 10/11 joint favourites, from 5/4.
In Pudsey, they have shortened up from 2/1 to 6/4; the Ashcroft polling has this as a dead heat, so perhaps this is still good value.
Finally, in Nuneaton, the Tories have moved from 7/4 to 6/4.
I notice that the Labour candidate is 22 year old Vicky Fowler. It’s an amazing achievement to have been selected for a winnable seat at such a young age. It looks like she would become the youngest MP since Charles Kennedy was elected in 1983.