Ashcroft polling sees Tory chances improve in three key marginals.

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest marginals polling seemed to mostly confirm what we already knew; that Labour are far enough ahead to form a majority government, if there were an election right now. Although, interestingly, the main changes in our constituency odds saw the Tories shorten up in three key seats.

In Gloucester, they are now 10/11 joint favourites, from 5/4.

gloucester

In Pudsey, they have shortened up from 2/1 to 6/4; the Ashcroft polling has this as a dead heat, so perhaps this is still good value.

pudsey

Finally, in Nuneaton, the Tories have moved from 7/4 to 6/4.

nuneaton

I notice that the Labour candidate is 22 year old Vicky Fowler. It’s an amazing achievement to have been selected for a winnable seat at such a young age. It looks like she would become the youngest MP since Charles Kennedy was elected in 1983.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.