Ashcroft Marginals Poll – Miliband’s chances of becoming PM improve again.


Ashcroft marginals polling – click to enlarge


Some interesting polling from Lord Ashcroft today on a dozen Labour/Tory marginals.

Labour were favourites to win all of these on Ladbrokes’ constituency odds beforehand, so it’s no surprise to see them ahead, although the size of the leads will please Ed Miliband. We shortened his price slightly to 4/5 to become next PM and the odds on Labour getting most seats went from 4/5 to 8/11.

The most interesting constituency poll was undoubtedly Southampton Itchen, where the Tories seem to be doing much better than one would have expected. We cut their odds of gaining the seat from 11/4 to 9/4, which is arguably quite an attractive price given that there seems to be a dead heat there at the moment. That now makes Itchen the most likely Tory gain from Labour in the entire country, based on our seat by seat odds.



Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.

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