Some interesting polling from Lord Ashcroft today on a dozen Labour/Tory marginals.
Labour were favourites to win all of these on Ladbrokes’ constituency odds beforehand, so it’s no surprise to see them ahead, although the size of the leads will please Ed Miliband. We shortened his price slightly to 4/5 to become next PM and the odds on Labour getting most seats went from 4/5 to 8/11.
The most interesting constituency poll was undoubtedly Southampton Itchen, where the Tories seem to be doing much better than one would have expected. We cut their odds of gaining the seat from 11/4 to 9/4, which is arguably quite an attractive price given that there seems to be a dead heat there at the moment. That now makes Itchen the most likely Tory gain from Labour in the entire country, based on our seat by seat odds.