The Liberal Democrats’ chances seat by seat

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Rob Ford wrote an interesting round up of the Liberal Democrats’ prospects for Sunday’s Observer. I thought I’d compare his summary to the latest odds in each seat.

In the table below, I’ve converted the odds into an implied “win chance” for each of the 57 existing Lib Dem seats. If you check his article out, you’ll see what each of the “Ford Ratings” is about

Seat Win Chance Ford Rating
Westmorland and Lonsdale 86% SAFE
Norfolk North 80% SAFE
Orkney and Shetland 80% SAFE
Twickenham 79% SAFE
Colchester 76% SAFE
Lewes 74% SAFE
Bath 73% OPEN
Thornbury and Yate 73% SAFE
Carshalton and Wallington 71% LOCAL
Hazel Grove 70% OPEN
Yeovil 69% SAFE
Cambridge 68% URBAN
Southport 65% LOCAL
Cheltenham 63% LOCAL
Kingston and Surbiton 63% LOCAL
Leeds North West 62% URBAN
Sutton and Cheam 62% LOCAL
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 61% LOCAL
Eastleigh 61% SAFE
Eastbourne 58% LOCAL
Brecon and Radnorshire 58% HEARTLAND
Sheffield Hallam 56% URBAN
Ceredigion 56% HEARTLAND
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 54% LOCAL
Cheadle 53% HEARTLAND
Birmingham Yardley 51% URBAN
St Ives 51% HEARTLAND
Bristol West 47% URBAN
Cornwall North 47% HEARTLAND
Torbay 47% HEARTLAND
Berwick-upon-Tweed 36% OPEN
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 35% LOST
Portsmouth South 33% LOST
Devon North 32% HEARTLAND
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 31% LOST
Chippenham 30% LOST
Hornsey and Wood Green 30% URBAN
Wells 28% LOST
Bradford East 26% LOST
Taunton Deane 26% OPEN
Fife North East 25% LOST
Cardiff Central 24% URBAN
Dorset Mid and Poole North 23% OPEN
Somerton and Frome 23% OPEN
Dunbartonshire East 22% LOST
St Austell and Newquay 22% HEARTLAND
Solihull 21% LOST
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 18% LOST
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 16% LOST
Burnley 16% LOST
Gordon 16% OPEN
Edinburgh West 15% LOST
Brent Central 10% OPEN
Manchester Withington 10% LOST
Redcar 10% OPEN
Argyll and Bute 8% LOST
Norwich South 7% LOST

So, we mostly agree with Rob about where the safest and most vulnerable seats are. The betting says that Eastleigh is the most precarious of Rob’s “safe” category, with a 39% chance that the Lib Dems will lose it. On the flip side, the odds say that Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk might not be the lost cause that Rob suggests – we give them a 35% chance of holding on there.

Looking at his list of possible surprise Liberal Democrat gains, we agree on Montgomeryshire and Watford as being the top two prospects, but the betting has a few above his third choice of St Albans:

Seat Gain Chance
Watford 34%
Montgomeryshire 28%
Maidstone and The Weald 20%
Truro and Falmouth 16%
Winchester 15%
Oxford West and Abingdon 15%
Cornwall South East 14%
St Albans 11%
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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.