Golden Globes precedent sets up The Revenant for Bafta upset

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The Baftas are only two days away and the likelihood of seeing an upset at the Royal Opera House is highly likely.

Spotlight is the 11/10 favourite to win the Best Film Bafta, but backing The Revenant at 11/8 would be a wiser investment.

The Leonardo DiCaprio-led film is already sweeping up a number of accolades over the awards season and recent history suggests this is going to happen again at the ceremony hosted by Stephen Fry.

For the last three years, whoever wins the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture-Drama also goes on to claim the Bafta for Best Film.

Boyhood, 12 Years a Slave and Argo have all followed this trend and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is sure to be excited by the likelihood of adding to his growing trophy collection.

The Spanish director is already in possession of seven major awards, winning a combination of Best Film and Best Director nods across the Oscars, the Golden Globes and the Baftas.

Furthermore, since 2008 only three films that have won Best Drama at the Globes have not gone on to win the British equivalent.

The Descendants, the Social Network and Avatar are the unlucky movies to be snubbed in London after getting the prize from the Hollywood Foreign Press and all those decisions can be explained away.

In 2012, George Clooney’s film lost out to the Artist, which won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, while the story of the creation of Facebook was beaten by the King’s Speech in 2011 and it makes sense for such a British film to win the Bafta.

James Cameron’s big-budget blue alien romp was edged out by the Hurt Locker, which went on to win the Oscar, and there was little to pick between those two front-runners in 2010.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Dan Ross

After a brief stint as a commentator, Dan took his passion for football into writing and went on to gain an NCTJ in sports journalism. A lifelong Walsall fan, he's followed the Saddlers through the highs, getting to Wembley for the first time ever last season, and the lows, namely relegation to League Two in 2006.