Sole Power may not be 100/1 to win the Nunthorpe this year like he was in 2010, but 6/1 still represents a fair price that he can claim victory at York.
The King’s Stand Stakes has often provided the best guide to the Nunthrope in the last decade, with four of the last ten winners having taken part at Royal Ascot.
Sole Power finished third behind Little Bridge and Bated Breath, with the winner absent here and the runner-up inconvenienced by the overnight rain at York.
Furthermore, Sole Power’s hold-up tactics may be more likely to succeed with some cut in the ground, particularly against Bated Breath, who may struggle to build an unassailable lead when getting first run.
Meanwhile, his price also represents each-way value given that he has not been out of the first three in all four starts this season.
Like Bated Breath, another leading fancy in Ortensia will not appreciate softer conditions.
Ortensia’s win at Goodwood last time is a big positive in her favour, while fillies and mares have an impressive strike rate in the Nunthorpe and she gets in here off a feather weight.
But to triumph, not only will she have to overcome the unfavourable ground, but also the dismal record of horses aged seven or over in the Nunthorpe.
With some doubts over the market principles and the last two winners being priced at 100/1 and 20/1, it may pay to seek some each-way value.
There is quite a lot of dead wood in the Nunthorpe, but Nocturnal Affair and Spirit Quartz are worth keeping on side, with both priced at 20/1.
The jockey booking of Richard Hughes is interesting in relation to Nocturnal Affair, while Spirit Quartz took fifth in the King’s Stand Stakes and a repeat of that run will see him close to a top-four finish.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.