David O’Meara has taken three of the last four runnings of the Great St Wilfrid Stakes at Ripon, and will be hoping for a quartet of victories here.
However the trends look against the Yorkshire handler.
The 20-runner affair looks a tricky one to solve at first glance, but delving into the archives of the recent renewals of the race, we can see that the stats say otherwise.
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There are 10 things that we need to consider when looking for the victor of the £43k handicap.
The stats that matter
– 12 of the last 15 winners had previously won a race with 16 or more runners
– 55 per cent of horses placed in the past decade were trained by either Richard Fahey, David O’Meara, David Nicholls or Kevin Ryan
– 14 of the last 15 winners had either won that season or were placed last time out
– The last nine winners were rated between 92 and 100
– Nine of the last 10 winners had their previous run at either Newmarket, Ripon, Haydock or Goodwood
– Nine of the last 10 winners came from stall 11 or lower
– Only two horses in the past 20 years have won at 20/1 or bigger
– Four and five-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 despite making up just 50 per cent of runners
– Six of the last seven victors had at least placed over course and distance
– Seven of the last 10 winners had run in the Stewards Cup, Scottish Stewards Cup or SkyBet Dash that season
Only three of the 20 runners even meet eight of the 10 criteria, but there is one four-year-old that ticks every single one of the boxes.
Richard Fahey’s Tatlisu was well down the field in the Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood last time out, but has put in some massive performances in this type of race before.
He was only beaten ¾l in this race last season, and has since improved, winning once at Doncaster, before placing a further three times.
His handler won this race in 2013 with Baccarat and can add a second success in the contest with this 14/1 shot.
The colt was nearly half that price last year, and is drawn (according to stats) better this time round in seven.
This race may look tough to work out, but with the stats all pointing his way, you could do far worse than taking a punt on this son of Red Clubs.
Ladbrokes will be paying 1/4 odds on the first five home in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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