Idaho takes a big chunk out of the Ladbrokes St Leger market at 6/5, but Aidan O’Brien’s number one in the last Classic of the British Flat campaign fails to fit in with a couple of key trends over the past five years.
Aside from Kingston Hill in 2014, St Leger winners have been going to Doncaster firing on all cylinders, landing at least two of their previous four races.
Even 2012 winner Encke, a 25/1 shot at the off, managed as much while Leading Light made it five wins on the spin when taking the race 12 months later, with last year’s victor Special Verse trebling up with her triumph.
Idaho may have excuses after placing in both the English and Irish Derbys, but one win in six since debuting at the Curragh 11 months ago is not a particularly good look here.
Furthermore, O’Brien’s recent record in this race is not great, with just one win in the past decade of St Leger runnings, after the master of Ballydoyle landed the prize three times between 2001 and 2005.
The son of Galileo clearly earned punters’ approval with a besting of stablemate Housesofparliament at York’s Ebor meeting, but he looks far too short to fancy.
For an alternative we need a horse in form and none stands out more than Richard Hannon’s Ventura Storm, currently a top-price 33/1.
Hannon’s colt goes into the event off the back of two wins on the spin, the last at group level in France, and boasts an impressive tally of five triumphs from 10 races so far.
The St Leger eluded Hannon’s father Richard Snr during his illustrious training career, with the younger Richard also found wanting with his only runner so far – Windshear in 2014.
Maybe that’s why Ventura Storm gets such a big quote at 33/1, but he looks a contender nonetheless.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.