King of Stats: Bondi Beach to surf to St Leger success

The St Leger has been a favourites race for the past two years, with Kingston Hill’s triumph last season following on from the previous success of Leading Light.

Bondi Beach is the market leader this time at 11/8 in the hope of completing the hat-trick for favourite backers and the good news is that the statistics suggest he is the most likely winner.

The King of Stats has looked back over the last 13 runnings of the St Leger in the hope of uncovering the most widespread trends familiar among winners.

These seven have proved the most common in this period:

– All of the last 13 winners had previously registered either two or three career victories
– 12 of the past 13 winners finished in the first three last time out
– 10 of the last 13 winners were making their debut over a distance of 1m6f or further
– 10 of the last 13 winners were having their first start at Doncaster
– 10 of the last 13 winners had previously secured victory in a Group race
– Nine of the last 13 winners had an official rating between 109 and 115
– Eight of the last 13 winners broke from stall five or higher

Considering these statistics in terms of this year’s seven-runner St Leger field, here is how each entrant fares:


Bondi Beach is the outright winner by fitting six of the seven key pieces of criteria, with his one failure being that he has already been seen over the St Leger trip of 1m6f, when winning the Curragh Cup in June.

The fact that Aidan O’Brien has saddled four St Leger winners this century is another tick in Bondi Beach’s box, while six of the last 13 victors have also been sent off favourite.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.