As with most horse races, the ground plays a pivotal role when attempting to pick a winner and this will be no different in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
From a trends perspective, Shalimar Fromentro looks to have leading claims and could be worth an each-way bet at 12/1.
In the last ten years, no horse has carried more than 11st 2lb to victory in the Sky Bet Chase and this rules out many of the market leaders tasting success this year, including favourite Hold On Julio and Aiteen Thirtythree.
Shalimar Fromentro gets in at the lowly weight of 10st 4lb and would have arguably been higher if not falling when travelling strongly on his latest start at Aintree in the Becher Chase in December.
Also in the favour of Nick Williams’ runner is that he is in the right age range to succeed, with younger horses typically faring best.
Meanwhile, he is also a second season chaser and is one of only five runners that will arrive at Doncaster with an official rating between 128 and 136, which has been a common statistic among recent winners.
With stamina one strong point of Shalimar Fromentro and an asset where he carries an edge over many of his rivals, he should have no problem seeing out the 3m.
However, any rain that falls in the coming days will be a further boost to his chances.
One horse that does not want rain and will want conditions as fast as possible is Shakalakaboomboom, who must be given a great chance if the ground is declared good.
Nicky Henderson has previously regarded the horse as being potentially targeted at the Grand National and so there is clearly no stamina concerns from the yard.
A victory over the likes of Mon Parrain and Fair Along in a Grade Three last time at Cheltenham shows the horse also has a touch of class and 8/1 in the horse racing odds is a fair reflection of his chances.
Trends that fit Shakalakaboomboom include that seven of the past ten winners have been priced between 4/1 and 9/1 and seven of the last eight have come from the first five in the betting.