The King of Stats has been called forth to adjudicate on a quandary of a race on Day Two of Royal Ascot, namely the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup handicap over 1m at 17.00.
It took some serious shoe-horning, but he’s managed to whittle down the winner after a few rounds, at a big price too. Read on for the reveal:
All but two of the past 10 winners have been five years old or younger
To be fair, that triumphant pair came over the last three Royal Hunt Cup renewals, but the line of four and five-year-olds that preceded them makes this an impossible stat to ignore.
With that in mind, out go Balty Boys, Chil The Kite, 2014 winner Field Of Dream, Bronze Angel, Piri Wango, Gabrial, Sirius Prospect, Fort Bastion, Avon Pearl, Coprah, Lanceur, Jack’s Revenge and Bancnuanaheireann, leaving 17 more to shed before revealing the real deal.
Only two of the past 10 winners have carried 9-3 or more to victory
Near the bottom of the weights is the place to be in this handicap, with around 9st the average a horse must lug round Ascot to win the Royal Hunt Cup over the past decade.
Everybody above Luca Cumani’s Ayaar is carrying too much, leaving Frankie Dettori’s mount in along with American Hope, Don’t Be, Lamaar, Baraweez, Temptress, You’re Fired and Munaaser.
Five of the past nine winners, including the last two, had bombed last time out
This includes Field Of Dream and Belgium Bill in 2013 and 2014, who both went into the Royal Hunt Cup having come 15th in their immediately prior run.
Of the remaining sextet, only American Hope and bottom-weight Munaaser compare, as they head to Royal Ascot after finished 25th of 26 and 13th of 14 respectively last time out.
Both are big-priced outsiders with the same Racing Post Rating of 122, but Michael Stoute’s 25/1 shot Munaaser gets the nod due to his feather-light official mark.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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