The Ascot Gold Cup has undergone a name change for the 2016 renewal, taking on the honour of celebrating the Queen’s 90th birthday.
Some 18 horses are due to line up in the Gold Cup In Honour Of the Queen’s 90th Birthday Group 1 showdown and by looking at the trends most common among the winners this century, the resident King Of Stats believes he has uncovered the most likely victor.
Read on to discover who this is:
In the past 60 years only 2 horses aged over 6 have managed to win this
Drum Taps in 1993 and Yeats in both 2008 and 2009 were already previous Ascot Gold Cup winners when landing the spoils again when entering the twilight of their careers.
Griraz (11), Clever Cookie (8) and Pallasator, Sheikhzayedroad and Suegioo (all 7) look too elderly to triumph this year.
Eight of the last 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
Arriving at Royal Ascot on the back of a lengthy racecourse break is clearly far from ideal, with history suggesting that a horse should have a recent run to sharpen fitness.
Fun Mac (235 days) is next to be scratched from the shortlist on account of have not run recently enough.
12 of the last 14 winners had run no more than twice previously in the same season
Another one bites the dust here, with Wasir having raced three times across the UAE, France and Germany.
12 of the last 14 winners had previously triumphed over at least 2m on the flat
Proven stamina is clearly advantageous ahead of the 2m4f Ascot Gold Cup, which is bad news for clear favourite Order Of St George, who is untested over anything further than 1m6f to date.
Others that fall short in this department are Curbyourenthusiasm, Scotland, The Twisler, Tiberian and Kicky Blue.
Nine of the last 14 winners also secured success in their previous outing
Of the remaining five runners to have passed the opening four trends, four drop out here. Flying Officer, Max Dynamite, Mille Et Mille and Burmese were all beaten before coming to Ascot.
This leaves Mizzou, winner of the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last time in April, as the sole survivor and a draw of stall one is also advantageous. Over half of the last 10 winners of the Ascot Gold Cup broke from a stall between 1-5.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.