On first glance, Oasis Fantasy doesn’t appear to have a lot going for him in regards to winning the Northumberland Plate.
First is the draw, with 11 of the last 13 winners breaking from stall 13 or lower and all of the top three from the past three years drawn no higher than 10. Oasis Fantasy will only have one outside him from his position in stall 21.
Second is the lack of race victories secured in his career. Ed Dunlop’s four-year-old is on a losing run of eight starts and this latest success came off a handicap mark of 76. Some placed efforts since have caused Oasis Fantasy’s official rating to climb to 94 for his maiden trip to Newcastle.
Taking these factors into consideration, Oasis Fantasy may be regarded as plenty short enough in the Northumberland Plate betting at 10/1 given he will have to win off not only a career-high mark, but one 18lb higher than when he last tasted victory.
However, digging a little deeper, there are some other factors that suggest all hope is not lost.
The first positive is that Oasis Victory seems most at home on good-to-firm ground and only a drip of rain is forecast at Newcastle over the coming days.
This is bad news for Clever Cookie, who has already withdrawn from the Ascot Gold Cup recently on account of the ground being too quick, and Aramist, who would seemingly appreciate some cut underfoot.
Also, the fact that Oasis Fantasy tends to be held up should make it easier to overcome his wide draw.
Those ridden patiently came to the fore in 2011 from a strong pace, with the first four home drawn 14, 11, 16, 21. Oasis Fantasy will need some luck in running on this debut over 2m, but he can get into it from the rear.
Finally, of the past 13 winners, 10 carried no more than 8st 12lb to victory, 11 were aged six or younger and 10 finished in the first three on the previous start before arriving at Newcastle. Oasis Fantasy adheres to all of these trends.
The draw is a clear negative, but this has been factored into his 10/1 odds and he still looks a good thing for those seeking some each-way Northumberland Plate value.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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