Five times in the last seven, the favourite for the Craven Stakes at Newmarket has been sent off at odds of 1/1 or shorter. All of them have won.
This is a massive tick in favour of Foundation for the 2016 renewal, who is 4/7 to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Delegator, Native Khan and Toronado by landing the spoils for heavy-favourite backers.
His two-year-old form was near faultless, racking up a three-timer which included the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over course and distance.
However, he got no run on his final start, finishing third when sent off odds-on in the Racing Post Trophy with jockey Frankie Dettori barely moving a muscle once the result was clear.
Dettori and trainer John Gosden have already teamed up for four winners at Newmarket’s Craven meeting this week and Foundation looks incredibly tough to oppose.
All of the favourite’s five rivals also hold entries in the 2,000 Guineas and the best way to approach the race from a betting perspective is working out which horse will fill the forecast.
Tony Curtis should be the fittest, being the only entrant to have the benefit of a run this season. But, he finished behind Foundation in the Racing Post Trophy and his best form is on fast ground. Conditions are described as good-to-soft at Newmarket.
Very Talented should get an uncontested lead and seemed to relish the step up to 1m on his last start. He could be difficult to pass if allowed to set the race up for a test of speed.
Being related to former Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite Of Passage, this 1m trip could prove on the sharp side for Steel Of Madrid, while Aidan O’Brien’s Shogun finished last season poorly and has also struggled with cut in the ground previously.
Finally, Stormy Antarctic is officially the highest rated in the field and should appreciate conditions based on his Group 1 second last time. His issue could be pulling too hard if the early pace is sedate.
Stormy Antarctic looks the most likely to chase Foundation home and he is the 9/2 second favourite to win the Craven, but it might be worth backing Very Talented (10/1) to take bridesmaid honours on the assumption that he dictates from the front and proves tough to pass.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.