Olivier Peslier’s record on favourites in Group One races in the past month has been nothing but disappointing, but he has a chance to slightly remedy the situation after securing the ride on Family One in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket.
Peslier will not be in the good books of many punters after getting two well-supported favourites beaten in big races in recent weeks.
Firstly, he ran into the back of fading horses on Sea Moon in the St Leger and after eventually getting some daylight at Doncaster could only finish third.
Then at Longchamp on odds-on favourite Goldikova he arguably went for home too early and was eventually caught just before the line by Dream Ahead.
Peslier will want to avoid an unwanted hat-trick when partnering Family One, after regular jockey Ioritz Mendizabal was forced to give up the ride because of a lingering shoulder problem.
Family One is 10/3 in the Newmarket odds to win the Middle Park Stakes and is yet to finish outside of the first two on his six starts to date.
The good news for Family One is that the favourite has won the Middle Park Stakes in half of the last ten years, while nine of the victors in this timeframe have come from the top three of the Newmarket betting.
Other trends that are in his favour include eight of the last ten winners had already been successful in group company, all ten had been previous winners over 6f and nine had entered the winners’ enclosure on at least two previous occasions.
The bad news for Family One is that these statistics also apply to fellow market leader Caspar Netscher, who can be backed at 9/2.