King of Stats: Botti import ticks all the boxes in the Cambridgeshire

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For some, trying to pick out the winner of a 35 runner handicap can seem like a fruitless exercise, but with some very nice prices available it could pay to pin your colours to a horse in the Cambridgeshire.

One thing’s for sure, stats don’t lie. We have taken a look over the renewals of the race on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile from the last decade and applied the trends that the winners all meet, and have a very nice 28/1 selection for you.

And with Ladbrokes paying out on the first six home, each way bets are well covered.

First up, there are certain criteria that all winners in the last 10 years have met, and a brutal swoop through the field can eliminate 24 charges.

All the winners in our sample had:

–          Run between four and seven times that season

–          Won or placed in at least a Class 2 contest

–          Won a race with 13 or more runners

–          Not won more than five handicaps

From these remaining 11 horses, a look at the age stats show us that no horse older than six has won this race since 1993.

With that, we can remove the hardy veterans The Rectifier (40/1), Spa’s Dancer (50/1), Bancnuanaheireann (16/1) and Dance and Dance (40/1) from our workings.

Seven remain and with the pace of these ultra-competitive handicaps likely to be fierce, it can pay to side with a horse that has form at further, and is guaranteed to relish a strong gallop.

Unfortunately for Gabriels Kaka (20/1), Pacific Heights (40/1), Velox (10/1), Extremity (14/1) and Buckstay (28/1) the furthest they have triumphed over is a mile.

And then there were two.

So now to make our conclusions, and with probably the best in the business Ryan Moore taking the ride, Queensbury Rules (16/1) could be the one for many.

However, despite getting back to business with a victory in a decent race at York’s Ebor meeting, he is a far from consistent gelding, having struggled in some big fields recently, including when finishing 20th in this race last season off just 2lbs higher.

Instead preference goes to ENERGIA DAVOS (28/1). A Group 1 winner in his native Brazil, the six-year-old has performed admirably since his switch to Marco Botti’s yard.

He was unable to land a blow in a soft ground contest at Newbury last time out, but a return to a better surface should see him perform well.

The trainer has never had a runner in this race, but these types of foreign imports are just the sort of horses he thrives with and could make his maiden entry a winning one.

All odds and markets correct as of the date of publishing

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Ben Stones

Ladbrokes News’ equine expert, Ben likes nothing more than studying the form to pick out a winner or two for our readers. A Journalism and Media Studies graduate from the University of Winchester, Ben has previously written for a number of football and racing blogs and websites, as well as contributing to the sports pages of his home-town newspaper.