Tidal Bay absence surprisingly good news for Lord Windermere

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Lord Windermere may have climbed 13lb in the weights to 11st8lb for the Hennessy Gold Cup as a result of the withdrawal of Tidal Bay at the five-day declaration stage, but this may actually be a positive to his victory chances.

The general consensus has to be that the less weight a horse carries in any race the better, but the Hennessy has favoured those towards the top end of the weights in the last decade.

Six of the last eight winners have all carried 11st4lb or more to victory, with top weights performing especially well, providing three winners and another three each-way finishers in the last seven renewals.

Tidal Bay’s absence means that Cape Tribulation heads the weights this time and he must hold some each-way appeal at 20/1. However, there is a doubt over whether the ground will be heavy enough for his liking at Newbury.

Lord Windermere has triumphs on his resume on a variety of grounds and he is one of the best backed runners in the Hennessy betting, being supported into 9/1.

This is largely a result of some positive comments from his trainer Jim Culloty, who has really championed the chances of last season’s RSA Chase winner at the Cheltenham Festival.

Culloty not only “really fancies” to win the Hennessy, but has heard from regular jockey Robbie McNamara that Lord Windermere “feels twice the horse of last season”.

Three of the last five horses to attempt the RSA Chase and Hennessy double have also been successful, including Bobs Worth last year, while seven year-olds have won half of the renewals in the last decade.

Furthermore, Lord Windermere’s price contraction in the Hennessy betting is no bad thing from a trends perspective, as nine of the last 10 winners were sent off at single-figure starting odds.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.