King Of Stats: Is Yucatan the most likely Racing Post Trophy winner?

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The Racing Post Trophy has been a favourite’s paradise for the bulk of the last few years, with six market leaders triumphing in succession until 33/1 shot Marcel upset odds-on jolly Foundation 12 months ago.

This makes for positive reading for Yucatan, one of three Aidan O’Brien entrants among the 10 declarations for the Doncaster two-year-old showpiece. Yucatan is currently 10/11 to win this year’s Racing Post Trophy.

However, does Yucatan fit a wider number of statistics that have been common among recent winners?

Fresh from providing the winner of the British Champions Sprint Stakes winner on British Champions Day at Ascot (http://news.ladbrokes.com/horse-racing/king-of-stats-bet-with-your-heart-in-qipco-champion-sprint.html), the King of Stats is on call again to look at the trends that have been most frequent among recent Racing Post Trophy victors and identify a horse in this year’s line up that fits best.

Here are his workings:

12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top two on their most recent start

Yucatan remains on account of taking second in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh behind stablemate Capri, but three of this year’s entrants are struck off the shortlist of probable winners.

Bay Of Poets was last of eight in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket, The Anvil was runner-up in the same race but has since finished third when tackling another Group race at the same course and Rivet was fifth when stepping into Group 1 company in the Dewhurst Stakes.

12 of the last 14 winners had won only one or two races previously

Yucatan again negotiates this obstacle, with his sole success arriving in a maiden two starts ago.

The only horse not adhering to this statistic is Sir Dancealot, who is among the most experienced entered this year having raced five times. Three of these have ended in victory.

All of the last 10 winners had raced no more than four times previously

Sir Dancealot has already been omitted and is joined by Salouen, who has been kept extremely busy by trainer Sylvester Kirk. Salouen has run eight times since making his debut in mid-June.

Eight of the last 10 winners triumphed on their last start over 1m

Yucatan didn’t and so exits the shortlist. It is worth pointing out that O’Brien has trained the runner-up in each of the last three runnings of the Racing Post Trophy.

10 of the last 14 winners were foaled in either February or March

Of the remaining quartet in the reckoning, two depart here. Brutal is considered too old after being born in January 2014, while Finn McCool was foaled in May of the same year.

This leaves Contrapposto (12/1) and Raheen House (16/1) as the duo to adhere to five common trends among recent winners.

Preference is for the former, who has shown versatility in terms of race tactics on his last two starts and has run well on both good and softer ground. It could also be argued that he would be a shorter price for the Racing Post Trophy if hailing from the yard of a more fashionable trainer than David Menuisier.

The fact he has got the nod and highly-regarded stablemate Make Time has been left out also suggests some yard confidence in Contrapposto’s chances.

Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.