The 1,000 Guineas has proved a race for the underdog in recent years, with three of the past five winners sent off at odds of 16/1 or bigger.
However, starting price is not something that has been heavily taken into account when drawing up our Official Chart for the second of the five English Classics of 2015.
Instead, we have used the following five stats to help rank the 15 runners:
– Seven of the last 10 winners also won on their final start before Newmarket
– Seven of the last 10 winners had already had a run in the same season
– Nine of the last 10 winners had previously tasted victory over 7f or 8f
– Nine of the last 10 winners had previously won in either Listed or Group company
– Six of the last 10 winners had already been successful at Newmarket
So how has the Official Chart ordered the 1,000 Guineas entrants? See our full explanations for the running order below this graphic.
A winner over the Rowley Mile on her final start of last season when landing the Group 1 Dubai Fillies’ Mile, although the double with the 1,000 Guineas hasn’t been completed since 1996.
Homecoming Queen wasn’t the Aidan O’Brien first string when she took this race in 2012 either.
Was a well-backed favourite for the aforementioned Fillies’ Mile, but could only finish fifth, despite travelling best entering the final furlong.
The softer ground may have been against her that day and hailing from the Jim Bolger yard looks a positive, especially given comparisons to 2007 1,000 Guineas victor Finsceal Beo.
She looks the class horse in the race and brings the best two-year-old form. Found was at her best over this trip last time when running out a ready winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp in October.
The negatives are that doubts remain over her participation and there is a feeling that she will be most at home over middle distances.
Was mightily impressive over a slightly longer trip at Gowran Park when recently seen and her stamina is more guaranteed than most.
Legatissimo is another with multiple entries and so is far from a guaranteed starter for David Wachman.
Fits all five of our chosen trends and took the Nell Gwyn Stakes last time, which is among the more respected Guineas trials, despite following wide passage throughout.
The further improvement needed is not out of the question.
Like Osaila, the 2015 UAE 1,000 Guineas victor gets ticks for all of our chosen trends and her last British success came in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket, which Miss France collected en route to Guineas victory.
This is easily her toughest task to date though.
Won the Fred Darling on her reappearance where she profited from nabbing first run on the field.
The step up to 1m should suit and trainer Ralph Beckett has shown he can get the best from three-year-old fillies.
Second to Redstart, but got caught too far back to make a real impact and will be fancied to at worst get revenge on that rival.
The fact she has only run twice and comes from the yard of John Gosden does give her each-way claims.
Outclassed at the top level over 7f, but this step up in trip could bring improvement, especially if ridden with a little more restraint. A danger to totally dismiss from the Ballydoyle team.
She is more exposed than most, but capable of sneaking into the places after finishing fourth to Found in France when getting little luck in running.
A very comfortable winner of a Listed contest at Newmarket last time, but yet to race beyond 6f.
Has a lot to find on official ratings, but can do no more than win the races she is entered for and is the only unbeaten filly in the field. Would still be a shock result if she won.
A class act and a Group 1 winner over 6f, but didn’t appear to stay 7f last time so hard to fancy on a first start over 1m.
Looked very green in her two-year-old career and may well have wisened up over the winter. The fact she meets only one of our five chosen trends is a concern though.
The only horse in the field without an official rating, but the fact she was beaten when conceding weight to a horse rated 89 last time suggests she has no hope at Newmarket.