Dawn Approach is the rightful favourite for the 2,000 Guineas after dominating the two-year-old division in 2012, but he looks too short to back at 6/4 to continue this in the opening three-year-old Classic of the season.
Given that he is a fairly short price, this means that there is plenty of value to be had elsewhere and one horse that looks particularly overpriced is Dundonnell at 25/1.
Ladbrokes are offering the top price on the Roger Charlton colt and this is a fair price, even if he has been beaten on three of his five career starts.
He impressed when only third on his debut, especially as he was unfavoured by the soft ground at Newmarket and the fact that he had to race wide throughout.
Two victories then followed before he was a beaten odds-on favourite in a Group Two at Doncaster, but the race didn’t develop to suit and he only just went down to Toronado.
It certainly looks wrong that Toronado is 12/1 to win the 2,000 Guineas given the closeness of this race.
Dundonnell’s final start saw him sent off favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but he pretty much blew his chance when making a complete mess of the first bend, eventually doing amazingly well to take fourth.
He should be more mature this season and the Breeders’ Cup form has been franked since by Lines Of Battle, who was only seventh at Santa Anita, but has already won the UAE Derby this season at the Dubai World Cup meeting.
Three of his five starts have been in group contests and he has always been there or thereabouts at the finish, more of the same can be expected at Newmarket and 25/1 looks a profitable each-way price on Dundonnell’s chances, especially as Henrythenavigator and Cockney Rebel have won the Classic in the last six years despite being beaten in their final start beforehand.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.