A look to the current market for May’s 2000 Guineas will reveal a regular pattern – four Aidan O’Brien animals in the top six in the betting for the opening Classic of the season.
Instead, there could be value in one for a yard that are seeking their first success in the race in 14 years.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Convey (20/1) may not be the obvious pick amongst the plethora of Group winners in the market, having run just once on the polytrack at Kempton during his two-year-old campaign.
He was however, mightily impressive in that 7f contest, overcoming traffic problems to display an impressive turn of foot to scoot clear of his rivals.
But what makes him interesting is the fact that he was sired by Dansili.
It has become apparent that most of the Prix Du Muguet winner’s offspring get better with age, with many of his notable progeny showing their best form after their juvenile campaign.
The brilliant mare The Fugue raced just once in her debut year, taking a Newmarket maiden before going on to land four Group 1s between the ages of three and six.
Stoute’s own Harbinger managed just one win from his five races as a two-year-old before going on to be unbeaten at three, taking the Hardwicke Stakes and a King George in the process.
Furthermore a third Dansili youngster, Delegator, was beaten twice in three runs before going on to find only the great Sea The Stars too strong in the following season’s 2000 Guineas.
It’s clear that you shouldn’t write one of this horse’s foals off even if they didn’t shine in their first year on the track.
One shouldn’t be put off by the fact that Convey hasn’t mixed it amongst the best of them of yet, with his handler’s last success, in the race, Golan, coming after just a solitary run as a two-year-old.
The yard have been on somewhat of a renaissance in the last couple of season, having gone nearly three years, since claiming the Arc with Workforce, without a Group 1 win.
The Freemasons Lodge team bagged three in 2014 alone, a further nine successes coming at Group 2 or Group 3 level.
So forget all those Irish hype horses and put your faith in a horse who is bred to get better with age and goes for a yard prolific during the last campaign.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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