King of Stats: Monbeg Dude picked to land Grand National

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Once again all eyes will be on Aintree for the latest Grand National renewal with an estimated 600m people tuning in across the globe to see which horse will emerge victorious at the end of the 4m 3½f slog.

But how do you unpick the world’s greatest steeplechase? Here at Ladbrokes News we’ve assembled the most important recent trends to help you pick a winner from the 40-runner field.

– Since 1977 there’s been only been one winner carrying over 11st 5lbs (Neptune Collonges had 11st 6lbs on his back when scoring in 2012) from 109 runners. That doesn’t bode well for the Nicky Henderson-trained Triolo D’Alene who’ll also be burdened by 11st 6lbs.

– Fans of this year’s Hennessy Gold Cup runner-up Tidal Bay may wish to look away now. In 15 of the last 17 runnings only three of the 72 horses aged 12 and over have made the frame (Amberleigh House was a 12-year-old winner in 2004).

– In a similar vein, 15 of the previous 17 winners were aged either nine, ten or eleven. That potentially rules out Paul Nicholls’ lively chance, Rocky Creek.

– Only one Cheltenham Festival winner has gone on to land the Grand National since 1961 in the same year. But does that mean we write off Cross County winner and five-timer seeking Balthazar King?

– How much can we read into form? There’s no doubt your selection has got to have some class but a decent recent run isn’t essential. Eleven of the last 12 winners had no more than one chase victory in the same season while eight had no previous victories to show for their efforts in their Grand National campaign.
Market leaders Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude both make appeal in that regard.

 

– Experience could be crucial. Seven of the last 15 National winners had competed in the event before. Colbert Station unseated champion jockey AP McCoy in last year’s renewal but returns with a decent chance of making amends.

Our pick: Monbeg Dude

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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William Geldart

William contributed to a number of online football blogs before finally finding his pot of gold at the end of the rainbow alongside the rest of the Ladbrokes News team. Now indulging passions for football, horse racing, greyhounds, boxing and political betting. Supports Wycombe Wanderers and can be spotted at various lower league and non-league grounds across the country.