Based on current entries, Arbour Supreme is one of 34 horses set to miss out on a spot in the Grand National, but there is every reason to believe that he will be in the final 40 runners to take their place at Aintree.
Arbor Supreme is currently 20/1 in the Grand National odds and this price reflects the fact that he requires five horses above him in the weights to pull out before race day.
However, there are two main reasons to suggest that he will sneak into the Aintree field off 10st 3lb and this small weight will give him an excellent chance of winning The Grand National 2011.
Firstly, handicapper Phil Smith has previously indicated that he expects 10st 3lb to be the cut-off point for Grand National entrants and any horse weighted lower would be unlikely to get in.
Secondly, Arbor Supreme is trained by Willie Mullins, which could work in his favour.
Mullins currently has four horses above Arbor Supreme in the weights and he could pull any of these out in order to further boost the chances of the nine-year-old making the final 40.
If Arbor Supreme does make the Grand National line-up the result of his latest run in particular should mean that he starts shorter than 20/1.
Off level weights at Fairyhouse, Arbor Supreme chased home 8/1 Grand National favourite The Midnight Club before eventually losing by one length.
But at Aintree, Arbor Supreme would be 10lb better off, which would be a massive pull at the weights.
Meanwhile, Oscar Well and Bluesea Cracker were behind at Fairyhouse and they will re-oppose in the Grand National on worse terms.
Arbor Supreme also has experience of the Aintree fences after running in the Grand National last year.
A £20 stake on Arbor Supreme winning the Grand National would return £400. New customers can sign up here to take advantage of free bets totalling up to £60.