Glorious Goodwood is almost upon us once more, with a couple of handfuls of top-class contests, including two Group 1s, set for the historic West Sussex track.
To mark the occasion, His Royal Highness the King of Stats has cast a regal glance over the card for Tuesday’s Summer Stakes handicap. Here’s what he found.
11 of the past 12 winners have been four and five-year-olds
Older types haven’t had much to shout about in this over the past decade or so, meaning Forgotten Voice, John Reel and Montefeltro fall at the first hurdle.
11 of the past 12 winners had been out in the previous four weeks
This stat gets rid of Elidor and Blue Wave, each of whom have had at least six weeks’ rest.
10 of the past 12 winners had won over 1m4f previously
This might be a couple of furlongs further, but Ajman Bridge and All Talk N No Do exit the stage here having never managed victory over the Derby distance.
8 of the past 10 winners carried more than 9-7
After ruling out three of the four entries at this handicap mark or heavier, Amanda Perrett’s in-form Sea The Stars colt Astronereus, who’ll carry top weight, must come into calculations.
However, Perrett’s runner doesn’t fit into another key stat, namely that eight of the past twelve winners have been officially rated between 90-100.
Of the contenders left standing, Battersea, Farquhar and Great Hall all land between these two stools, but the latter is tough to fancy having failed to win in 11 starts stretching back almost two years, and has gone down to Astronereus and Notarised in recent weeks.
Taking that into account, the King of Stats decrees that Astronereus, Battersea and Farquhar are the three Summer Stakes horses to follow.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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