Aidan O’Brien has had a stranglehold over the Epsom Derby for the last three years, but the betting suggests that none of his three entries in 2015 are of the standard of Camelot, Ruler of the World or Australia.
However, the Professor has dug back through some of the main statistics common among Derby winners and discovered that one of O’Brien’s trio ticks all of the right boxes.
The horse that needs to be backed is Hans Holbein, who is still available at 12/1.
Let’s have a look where all of the other 11 Derby entrants fall short:
Sir Percy in 2006 has the lowest Racing Post Rating of the last 10 Derby winners at 118. Carbon Dating is attempting to triumph off just 104 this year, while Rogue Runner is rated 111.
Moheet’s eighth-place finish in the 2000 Guineas eliminates him, while Storm The Stars was fifth on his seasonal reappearance in a Newmarket maiden.
A run in either May or June is required to be considered race fit for the Derby, Epicuris was last seen being a beaten odds-on favourite at Longchamp in early April.
O’Brien’s reported number one Giovanni Canaletto has only ever won a maiden, his third runner Kilimanjaro’s best victory has been at Listed level, while Jack Hobbs’ only group outing came when second in the Dante.
Success Days is now up to six career starts after racking up three victories since the start of April, while Elm Park’s third in the Dante was also his sixth start.
The favourite Golden Horn also clears all of these obstacles, but the record in the Derby of his trainer John Gosden has to be a concern, which sees him omitted.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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