A horse’s weight is certainly one of the key factors to assess when attempting to uncover the winner of any race and the last decade has certainly shown that avoiding the horse allocated the most weight for the Paddy Power Gold Cup to be a prudent strategy.
Of the last 10 top weights to contests the Cheltenham contest, half have either fallen or been pulled up, while none of the remaining five have finished in the first three.
This is in comparison to another of the season’s most lucrative handicaps, the Hennessy Gold Cup, where the top weight has won three of the last seven renewals and another two have finished in the each-way positions.
Dynaste is the current favourite to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at 5/1, but trainer David Pipe has been sceptical over his participation, stating that whether or not Finian’s Rainbow arrives at Cheltenham will have a big bearing on his decision.
Should Finian’s Rainbow be withdrawn, Dynaste would be promoted to top weight and history has shown that this is a bigger Paddy Power obstacle to overcome than any of the 15 fences in the 2m4f contest.
Better news for Dynaste backers is that the Paddy Power Gold Cup has been a good race to follow the favourites in recent years, with five market leaders landing the spoils since the turn of the century.
Assuming Finian’s Rainbow does race, Dynaste will run with 11st 8lb on his back, which is the same weight that fellow grey, Al Ferof, triumphed with 12 months ago.
The Pipe stable also has a fine track record in the race, as they are responsible for four of the last 11 winners. Although, the yard could additionally be represented by Salut Flo (14/1) and Ballynagour (10/1) this year.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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