Grands Crus has been further backed into 2/1 to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup following comments from David Pipe that his grey is “reasonably treated”, but Long Run is a past example of a horse with a similar profile that failed to claim an expected victory.
Having won the Feltham Chase last season off an official rating of 159, Grands Crus looks well in for the Paddy Power Gold Cup off just 157, having run below par in the RSA Chase when favourite back at March’s Festival.
This lenient-looking mark has drawn in many punters, but Long Run could only finish third in this race in 2010 off just 158.
His maiden chase season also followed a similar pattern to that of Grands Crus, as he was a comprehensive winner of the Feltham before failing to truly stay in the RSA Chase.
Meanwhile, Long Run was only allocated a weight of 11st 1lb when third to Little Josh, Grands Crus will have to get the job done off a 5lb higher mark.
Some punters may point to the fact that seven of the last ten Paddy Power winners have been officially rated 146 or higher.
But, winners nearer Grands Crus’ mark have been in short supply, especially since the sponsor of the race changed from Mackeson Stout in 1996.
Since, Cyfor Malta is the highest rated winner off 154 in 2002, with Dublin Flyer in 1995 the last to win off a mark bigger than what Grands Crus will run off this year when doing the honours off a lofty 163.
However, what Grands Crus does have over Long Run is that he is a better jumper, is arguably better suited to a trip of 2m4f and already has a chase victory on his resume at Cheltenham ahead of the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.