16.00 Cheltenham – Somerset trainer can provide winner

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A quick look down the list of recent winners in this race and you’ll find starting prices of 18/1, 33/1, 66/1, 12/1, 14/1, 25/1, 12/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 14/1 since the start of the Millennium.

This suggests that favourites don’t fare too well in this race and while the favourite may have come second in five of the last ten runnings, backing Aigle D’Or at 10/3 offers up very little value.

Irish-trained runners – represented by Ferdy Murphy’s Hollo Ladies (8/1) and Gordon Elliott’s Beautiful Sound (10/1) – can be ruled out with just one win since 1951, as can horses rated 141+.

This is very much in which to indulge with a bet on a horse with big odds in the hope of a big return and punters should be looking for someone who has previous form around Cheltenham, placed on their last start and is lightly-raced this year.

One horse that fits the criteria is Holmwood Legend and at 25/1, offers punters the chance to win a fair bit of money.

A fifth place at Cheltenham in December over this trip and on the same ground is solid form and having beaten Peplum (25/1) at Sandown last time out, the edge is with the Patrick Rodford-trained ten-year-old.

Just six races this season means Holmwood Legend enters the race fresh and with 12 chase starts to his name, he can continue the trend that reads 11 of the last 12 winners had run less than 16 times over fences.

His age and just the one run around Cheltenham are negatives, but in a field that is as open as this one, and with the trends supporting backing an outsider, Holmwood Legend offers a lot more value than backing the favourite at 10/3,

A £20 stake on Holmwood Legend winning the Byrne Group Plate would return £520. New customers can sign up here to get £60 in free bets.

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Robbie Morris

Robbie studied sports journalism at the University of Gloucestershire, an establishment chosen for its proximity to Cheltenham racecourse, where he was a season ticket holder. Upon graduation, Robbie was a contributor to GolfPunk, a national magazine aimed at ridding golf of its traditionalist image, before joining the news.ladbrokes team.