With only a few weeks to go of the 2016 Flat racing campaign, the King of Stats’ focus has turned north of the border as 25 runners line up in the highly valuable Ayr Gold Cup
Here’s the rundown:
13 of the past 14 winners raced within the last four weeks
Top weight and Racing Post NAP Absolutely So falls at the first having not been out since mid-June, with Perfect Pasture, Ascription, Aeolus, Orion’s Bow, Hillbilly Boy, Kimberella, Johnny Barnes, Jack Dexter, Teruntum Star, Flaming Spear, Hoof It and 4/1 favourite Growl also bowing out.
Not to worry, there’s still 12 horses to wade through in this huge field.
12 of the past 14 winners had three or more wins to their name
With plenty of triumphant past form left among the dozen, only Watchable and bottom-weight Sir Robert Cheval hit the deck thanks to this stat.
11 of the past 14 winners failed to win their last race
Going into the Ayr Gold Cup in triumphant form is not a great look, with only two horses over the last decade managing to follow up in the Scottish showpiece.
Nameitwhatyoulike and Magnus Maximus both end up on the wrong side of those numbers, having scored at York and Ascot respectively last time out.
11 of the past 14 winners had won over 6f before
Baraweez has never even run over this distance and is the only one of the eight remaining without a 6f victory on his CV.
9 of the past 14 winners came from a double-figure stall
Bagging a high draw tends to work out best here, which is tough on Brando in Stall 8.
9 of the past 14 winners finished in the top four last time out
Rivellino and Glen Moss can’t make it past this stat with their recent ninth and 10th-place finishes.
9 of the past 14 winners carried 9-1 or more to victory
Lulu The Zulu and Poyle Vinnie make way as neither have been burdened with the requisite weight.
8 of the past 14 winners had raced at Ayr before
Final Venture and G Force remain, but only the former has experience at this track in his back catalogue, so Adrian Keatley’s five-year-old is decreed the King of Stats’ pick.
Ayr Gold Cup – 15.45 Ayr – G Force @ 12/1