Well-backed duo Golden Horn and Treve (twice) have ensured an average winning Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe SP of just over 13/2 over the past three years, but the fancied runners don’t always win the race oft-described as Europe’s most prestigious.
Carlos Laffon-Parias’ Solemia showed she wasn’t just there to make up the numbers in 2012 when pipping Orfevre at the line to land a 33/1 victory, 12 months after Peter Schiergen’s Danedream landed the laurels at 20s.
There’s little to criticise about 11/4 favourite Postponed’s form, with Roger Varian’s son of Dubawi looking to extend a six-game winning streak across the Channel, but no five-year-old has landed the Arc since Marienbard in 2002 and only one other managed as much over the past four decades.
Bearing that in mind, there must be value among the outsiders and nobody should be put off backing Andre Fabre’s New Bay at 16/1.
Fabre is the most successful trainer in the history of this race, with seven triumphs in total including Hurricane Run and Rail Link in successive campaigns between 2005-2006.
The four-year-old ran to his 9/1 odds last time out in the Irish Champions Stakes at Leopardstown, coming fourth ahead of 2/1 favourite and double-Derby winner Harzand having landed a Deauville Group 3 at odds on in his previous start.
New Bay already has a Chantilly win in his backburner, landing the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club in May last year ahead of Aidan O’Brien’s Highland Reel, and got to within two-and-a-half lengths of Golden Horn in last year’s Arc when finishing third.
He’s the right age, with two of the past four winners also four years old, while both Solemia and Treve (second time round) failed to fire in their previous races before taking the £2m-plus prize.
At 16/1, New Bay looks an each-way bet to cherish.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.