Winners of the Eclipse and King George respectively, Al Kazeem and Novellist deserve to feature high on the short list when looking for the winner of this elite race. But with the fillies and three-year-olds taking advantage of their weight concession in the last five runnings, it is Treve at 8/1 that looks the value selection ahead of the Longchamp showpiece.
Criquette Head-Maarek’s three-year-old filly certainly fits the profile of recent Arc winners. Receiving 8lbs from the likes of Al Kazeem and Novellist, and a 3lb advantage from the colts her own age, means Treve looks well weighted for glory.
2011 winner Danedream benefited from the same conditions, while last year’s victor Solemia also held an advantage over the majority of the field. A 20 per cent strike rate for fillies in this race over the last 20 years is somewhat impressive when you consider the number of colts normally vastly outnumber the fillies and mares in each renewal.
With Sheikh Joaan purchasing the daughter of Motivator in July, the money is certainly available to put up the required supplement of €100,000, should a prep run in the Prix Vermeille provide encouragement for connections.
Retained rider Frankie Dettori is set to take the mount, and with three wins in this race to his name, there are few jockeys that you would rather have on your selection in this contest.
The Italian will be partnering Treve on her first foray at a mile and a half at Longchamp, but the manner in which she broke the track record in the Prix De Diane, disposing of a field which included subsequent Irish Oaks winner Chicquita, last time out suggests that she will cope with the step up in trip well.
An impressive turn of foot and the way in which she stayed on that time could make the 8/1 available to claim glory in October look a very generous price should a big performance in her prep race materialise.
All odds and markets correct on the date of publishing