Much has been made of Redwood’s second place finish behind Rewilding at Meydan earlier this season, but not much has been made of either the record of favourites in this race or of Camponologist’s form.
Redwood comes in to the race as the heavily supported 11/4 favourite and while his second to Rewilding in Dubai cannot be argued with, there’s a huge anomaly between his odds and Campanologist’s odds.
Rewilding got up to beat So You Think by a neck in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, yet Camponologist who finished second to So You Think on his second start of the season is as big as 7/1 to win today’s feature race.
There are a number of very strong horses in this field including Afsare (4/1), Crystal Cappela (9/2) and Laaheb (11/2) and all pose a serious threat to Redwood’s favouritism.
The trends suggest punters are looking for a previous Group winner, preferably over the 1m4f trip, and the horses that fulfil that criteria are Campanologist, Laaheb, Redwood and Crystal Cappela.
Redwood is making just his second start of the season, was beaten in this race last season and has the favouritism stat against him so we should be looking elsewhere.
Laaheb finished one place ahead of Campanologist in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and was two lengths behind Redwood at Meydan and has to be respected.
But he was disappointing on quick ground at Newmarket two runs ago and Campanologist would rather the pace in the ground suggesting the Ascot form will be reversed.
Crystal Cappela needed her first run of the season at Haydock in May and her strike rate of two wins and one second in her three runs at Newmarket (all Group 2 races) is incredible form, however she will have to be the first female to win this race since 1982 and all of her seven career wins have been against her own sex.
Campanologist looks a huge each-way price at 7/1 and he is the pick of the field.