Punters were happy to brave the elements at Newmarket yesterday but following a day in which four short favourites were beaten into second, spirits are low.
The 13.20 starts the day at Newmarket and Chokurei looks a good thing in that despite her 4lb rise at the weight, but it is the 13:50 totesport.com Stakes that we’re focusing our attention on first.
This 20-runner handicap is a difficult race in which to find the winner but there are some big prices and punters have the potential to make a strong return in a race which has strong trends.
Lexi’s Hero is the one to beat based on the Bond Tyre Trophy Stakes at York in which he beat a number of his rivals who line up against him today, and he rightly deserves his place towards the top of the market at 9/1.
Steps holds the favouritism at 7/1 but favourites struggle in this race and the SP’s of the last six winners have all been 10/1 or bigger.
Punters are looking for a horse that has had between three and 10 career starts, is carrying less than 9st, finished either first or second in his last two starts and won or placed in a handicap this season.
On the basis of the above trends coupled with seven of the last ten winners all being rated between 84-91, out shortlist consists of Swiss Dream (9/1), St Augustine (10/1) and Dozy Joe (25/1).
Swiss Dream finished just one length behind Lexi’s Hero in the York race and has already won a handicap, albeit a Class 4, at Newmarket on good ground this season.
St Augustine is a progressive colt who beat the favourite for today’s race on the all-weather track at Kempton last November and is a very tempting price at 10/1 although the rain could be against him.
Dozy Joe is the biggest price of our selections and he will have to produce a career best performance today to take the race but his form on the all-weather means he’s well worth an each-way crack at 25/1.