Stenson isn’t the only golfer capable of final-round USPGA leap

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After the lightning and the rain, the third round of the USPGA was finally completed early on Sunday afternoon, with three men being left two strokes apart at the top of the leaderboard.

Jimmy Walker is alone in first place, but 7/1 to see out his advantage owing to the presence of Jason Day one back and Open Championship winner Henrik Stenson and Brooks Koepka two behind.

To try to get a steer on which of the four is most likely to get it right on the final trip around Baltusrol, let’s look at how each of their records in the fourth round has compared to the three prior across the three majors to date this year:

JIMMY WALKER -11 @ 7/1

Average R1-3 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 73
Average R4 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 75
Verdict: Two worse

Walker’s odds seem a bit of an affront to his performance this week given that he has held at least a share of the lead at the end of all three rounds and didn’t deteriorate to the extent that some suspected in the third, but the one time that he made the cut at a major this year – the Masters – he saved his joint-worst round until last.

JASON DAY -10 @ 7/4

Average R1-3 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 71
Average R4 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 72
Verdict: One worse

Day is the only of the front four to have gone the distance at all three majors this year, but at none of them did the consistent Australian – a top-10 finisher at nine of the past 15 – save his best for last. In all three, his finest score came on day two or three, though the drop off between his initial 54 holes and the closing 18 averages out at less than one, which might be enough if all his rivals choke.

HENRIK STENSON -9 @ 3/1

Average R1-3 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 71
Average R4 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 66
Verdict: Five better

Stenson’s final-day display at the Open Championship earlier this month will go down in history as one of the greatest pressure performances not just across golf but all sports. Would you believe that it wasn’t even his most dramatic Sunday surge of the major year though? That occurred at the Masters, where the Swede suddenly pulled off a 69 after rounds of 72, 75 and 78.

BROOKS KOEPKA -9 @ 7/1

Koepka is by far the value-for-money bet of the four, possessing far more major pedigree than his odds give him credit for – he has three top 10s including a tied-fifth at last year’s USPGA – and an excellent finishing record. His final round was two up on his Thursday-to-Saturday average at the Masters, while it was a whopping four better at the US Open. He sat out the Open Championship.

Average R1-3 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 73
Average R4 Score at 2016’s first three majors: 70
Verdict: Three better

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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