Nico Rosberg should have every reason to believe he can close out his 1/4 Formula One drivers’ championship challenge with victory in Mexico this weekend, after dominating when motor racing returned to Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez 12 months ago.
In a sign of things to come, Rosberg grabbed pole in the last six races of the 2015 campaign, and won the final three after Lewis Hamilton wrapped up his third title victory, and second on the bounce, with four rounds left.
Only once all term, however, did the 31-year-old German pull off the hat-trick of pole position, fastest lap and Sunday success. You’ve guessed it – Mexico.
Having grabbed two hat-tricks this year – in Russia and at the European Grand Prix in Baku – and with Rosberg 26 points clear of Hamilton going into the last three races, Mercedes’ perennial bridesmaid must be feeling in very good shape.
You can have 7/1 about him topping all three key metrics in Mexico City for the second year running, after winning three times, taking pole twice and posting one fastest lap over the past five raceweeks. That looks just about the best value bet out there.
Going by the odds, Hamilton’s title challenge will be slow to burn out, although even three wins won’t be enough if Rosberg stays in touch.
Despite taking the chequered flag for the first GP in six last time out in the US, the Brit is 10/11 favourite in Mexico, ahead of last year’s winner, championship favourite and in-form teammate Rosberg at 11/8. It doesn’t make sense.
Behind the likely top two, Daniel Ricciardo looks a cracking price at 1/1 to podium for the seventh race in nine.
Fellow Red Bull driver Max Verstappen keeps this market lively at 11/10 after landing two top-three spots over the past three rounds, but the Australian’s recent form – including his first win for more than two years at the start of this month in Malaysia – makes Ricciardo a force to be reckoned with.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.