Lewis Hamilton has emerged as the 4/9 favourite to win the 2016 Mexican Grand Prix after beating Drivers’ Championship leader Nico Rosberg to pole.
Will he maximise that advantage? Will the German instead overturn it to edge even closer to title glory? And how will the rest of the classification look for the third-last race of the season? Allow these three stats to help steer your betting:
Hamilton has just a 44 per cent pole conversion rate this year
The defending champion has actually out-qualified Rosberg in 2016, recording the fastest time on 10 occasions to his Mercedes colleague’s eight, which offers an indication of how he has failed to make the most of those opportunities.
A mere four of his nine poles before Mexico have led to victories (44 per cent), compared to seven of 11 last term (64 per cent) and six from seven in 2014 (86 per cent). By contrast, six of Rosberg’s eight poles have been cashed in on (75 per cent).
The chart-topper has been the beneficiary on three of the five instances in this campaign that Hamilton hasn’t been able to make it stick and is 11/4 to be so again.
Valtteri Bottas has podiumed at three of the last five North American races
From Keke Rosberg to Mika Hakkinen to Kimi Raikkonen, ever since the 1990s, since the 1970s, Finland has always been well represented in Formula 1 and Bottas is the latest part of that succession.
Since the start of last season, the Williams driver’s greatest moments have come in North America, including his three podiums in that period: at Canada and Mexico last year and Canada this summer.
It means that he has a 60 per cent top-three finish rate across those two races and USA compared to 0 per cent everywhere else on the calendar from 2015 onwards so, despite qualifying in eighth, there may be some value in backing him for the podium at huge odds of 25/1.
Sergio Perez has collected points at seven consecutive races
Someone else who has to be fancied to outdo their qualifying position is local hero Perez, who was classified in 12th place on Saturday, but is 4/9 to ascend to the top 10 on Sunday.
The Mexican, who was eighth there last year, kicked off the campaign with five point scores from 11, yet has transitioned that into seven in a row – a feat rivalled by Rosberg and Daniel Ricciardo alone – to push Force India past Williams into fourth in the Constructors’ Championship standings.
“Checo” has also cracked the top six five times in 13 races and is 13/8 to do so in his homeland.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.