Football fanatic, Oxbridge graduate and professional number cruncher Rachel Riley has been poring over historical World Cup data to use statistics to pinpoint this year’s potential winners – with the stats unexpectedly indicating 40/1 outsiders Chile as the surprise champions.
The statistical study, commissioned by betting experts Ladbrokes, challenged Rachel to delve through the record books and pull out key patterns and indicators ahead of the tournament, which kicks off on 12 June.
With so many variables and influences to consider including goal averages, goal scorers, win rates, climate, geography and all the pre-tournament hype and expectation, any prediction method requires a combination of both mathematical logic and human reasoning.
Manchester United fan Rachel says of her calculations: “Having crunched all the numbers and stats my maths suggests Chile are a good bet to upset the odds at 40/1.
They might be amongst the outsiders, but the statistics and form imply they will be this year’s dark horses. They’ve got a decent team, and although it’s a tough group they tick all the boxes and I’m convinced Chile can go all the way.
Check out Rachel’s 2014 World Cup Winner prediction below!
“Everyone thinks the winner will come from one of the top 10 teams, but the key stats on qualifying performance, goals scored, goalscorers, host nation and current outright odds suggest the likes of pre-tournament favourites Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, Italy and France will be going home empty handed. As for England, I’ll be cheering on Roy’s Boys, but I’m not sure it’s going to be their year,” Riley added.
Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: “This year’s World Cup is easily going to be the biggest and most exciting ever, and we’re expecting bets to go through the roof. Brazil might be favourites but Rachel’s stats say otherwise. Our research shows that the heavyweight teams are going to falter under the pressure, most notably including the hosts.
“Patriotic punters will always bet with their heart on England, but it would be much wiser to follow Rachel’s expert advice and back this year’s underdogs Chile to tear the script apart.” Donohue added.
Go behind the scenes as Rachel Riley prepares to pick out her World Cup winner for Ladbrokes.
Visit ladbrokes.com on your mobile now to download the new app and bet on over 300 markets, including the outright winner.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
Fancy a flutter? Sign up today to claim up to £100 in free bets.