Why Man City are guaranteed to beat Newcastle 2-0

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Rafael Benitez doesn’t really do wild celebrations, but if the Spaniard had allowed himself as much as a smile after picking up his first win as Newcastle boss, it’s about to get wiped off.

A 3-0 win over Swansea last time out ensured the Magpies kept within three points of Premier League safety but, with Manchester City their next opponents, they won’t be leaping away from the trapdoor any time soon.

The Citizens have wiped the floor with the St James’ Park outfit in their last two meetings. Sergio Aguero joined the five-goals-in-a-game club in a 6-1 win earlier in the season, while it was a 5-0 victory for the Sky Blues in the outing prior to that.

Both of those poundings came at the Etihad Stadium, but home advantage doesn’t improve things for the Geordies.

In all competitions, the north-east strugglers have lost six straight matches against City in front of their own fans. In fact, a 2-2 draw in 2008 is the only time they have avoided a home defeat in nine games against this opposition.

Unsurprisingly then, Manuel Pellegrini’s mob are 4/7 to pick up a rudimentary triumph on Tuesday night, with the hosts priced at 5/1 to break the losing cycle and the draw a 10/3 poke.

Rather than take the price on City winning though, there’s another trend associated with their trips to St James’ Park that provides a more value bet.

During their spell of dominance on Tyneside, the former Premier League champions have carved out a niche for winning their visits 2-0.

Four of their last five trips to Newcastle have resulted in this scoreline, including all of the previous three.

Ladbrokes go 7/1 that the streak continues with a fourth 2-0 City win, a far juicier looking price than backing the win on its own.

Combine that score with Aguero scoring the first goal and you get 18/1, which looks even better considering the Argentine has scored more goals against the Magpies than any other opponent in his career.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Matt Wiggins

No idyllic sound comes close to leather on willow for Matt, whose previous experience includes stints with Spin Magazine and Surrey County Cricket Club. It's not just cricket that interests him though, with football, golf, tennis and any American sport not played on ice all high on his list of favourites.