Today’s Premier League table must look pretty good if you’re Burnley fan, with the Clarets in a remarkable 10th place. But though the odds say otherwise, we say Sean Dyche’s men can remain in the top-half come the end of the season.
Burnley can still be backed at 9/1 to end the campaign in the top-10, and we think that’s cracking value.
Hear us out.
First up, Dyche’s boys are making it count at home. With eight wins, only Chelsea and Liverpool have won more games on their own patch.
They’ve proven time and time again they can mix it with anyone at Turf Moor, and have beaten both Liverpool and Everton this term, while Arsenal and Manchester City were fortunate to escape victoriously.
Leicester and West Ham – with two away wins between them this season – still have to make the trip up north before the end of the campaign.
Secondly, we have plenty of confidence that Burnley’s travel woes won’t last much longer.
Just one point on the road may be cause for concern, but the fixture list hasn’t been kind.
The Lancashire outfit have already had to head down to White Hart Lane, Old Trafford, the Etihad and Stamford Bridge.
Throw in trips to Stoke, West Brom and Southampton, and the Clarets have been handed a tough run.
But what it means is that with 10 more away games still to come, Dyche’s men know that half of those come against each of the bottom five sides in the table.
Realistically the Clarets can be picking up a couple of wins in those five games.
And thirdly, the point spread in this season’s Premier League – thanks to the dominant six clubs at the top – makes everything from eighth down incredible tight.
Every single point will count, and it’s highly likely that a top-half spot is on the market for less than 50 points.
The last three seasons have seen the 10th place finisher bag 50,48 and 49 points.
And Swansea finished ninth in 2013 with just 46 points.
With Burnley already on 26, and with so many teams in and around them ready to take points off each other, it may be that only another 20/21 points are required.
So that’s going to equate to around six wins and a few draws from 17 games.
Given what the Clarets have achieved this season, that’s perfectly within reach.
And at 9/1, we think backing the Clarets to maintain their top-half hold is a fantastic shout.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing