Southampton v Burnley: Under 1.5 goals stands out as best bet

Sky appear to have made a bit of a faux pas when deciding that Southampton’s home clash with Burnley is sufficient as the next Super Sunday.

The logical considerations when deciding which games are worthy of this television coverage would be that the game features at least one so-called ‘big-six’ team, is a local derby or at a minimum promises a reasonable number of goals.

This St Mary’s showdown ticks none of these boxes. In fact, when it comes to expecting goals, a case can be made that this is the worst fixture that could have been chosen.

Southampton’s seven Premier League outings so far this term have thrown up a grand total of 13 goals, while Burnley’s seven have delivered just one more. This two totals are the lowest in the top flight. For context, Liverpool’s opening seven matches have conjured up 28 goals.

While this statistic suggests TV viewers can expect a low-key Sunday spectacle, it is promising from a betting perspective.

Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 17/20, while the better value may prove to be the 5/2 that no more than a single goal is netted at St Mary’s.

The chances of a Burnley goal look especially bleak, with the Clarets the only Premier League team still to score on their travels this season.

As for Southampton, they are chasing a seventh consecutive clean sheet across all competitions. Their club record is eight shut outs in succession, which dates back almost 100 years to 1922.

The Saints clean sheet is available at 8/11, with the win to nil a reasonable 1/1.

With two goals in his last three appearances, Charlie Austin looks Southampton’s main goal threat. He is 10/3 to break the deadlock.

Alternatively, there could prove decent profit in the scorecast of Austin nabbing the only goal in a 1-0 Saints success at 14/1.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing


Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.